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Future scanning is not easy. We make educated guesses and adjust our tactics as things unfold.
Here are some of my favorite examples of scanning that weren't quite on:
Next Christmas the iPod will be finished, dead, gone kaput - Lord Alan Sugar, 2005
The Internet would soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse - Robert Metcalfe, 3Com Digital Electronics Company Founder, 1995
The Beatles have no future in show business. We don't like their sounds, and guitar music is on the way out - Decca Records, 1962
I think there is a world market for maybe five computers - IBM Chairman, 1943
Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop—because women like to get out of the house, like to handle merchandise, like to be able to change their minds - Time, 1966
Rock 'n Roll will be gone by June - Variety, 1955
Television won't last because people will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night - Darryl Zanuck, 20th Century Fox, 1946
There is no chance that the iPhone will get any significant market share - Microsoft CEO, 2007
A rocket will never be able to leave the earth's atmosphere - New York Times, 1936
There is no danger that Titanic will sink - Phillip Franklin, White Star Line VP, 1912
There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home - President, Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977
The bottom line is this - no one is perfect. Do your best at scanning and create options for what to do as the trend develops. Don't stick with one idea, be flexible.
I hope you enjoyed these examples. I'd love to hear from you in the comment section!
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